Potential for computers to be as intelligent as humans
Submitted by jrohwer on Wed, 2006-04-05 11:44
Here is the paper I mentioned in class during our discussion of whether or not computers will ever be able to achieve behavioral complexity comparable to that of humans: When will computer hardware match the human brain, by Hans Moravec in 1997. "This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s." That soon? It sounds a little bit crazy, but the general idea is pretty solid, in my opinion: that eventually, in the not-too-distant future (maybe not quite so soon as 2022) computers will easily rival or surpass human intelligence. I would be interested to know whether or not Moravec can convince Professor Grobstein.